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| The Benefits of Growth |
"Dear [Washington Post Journalist Jeffrey] Birnbaum:
Yesterday, on PRI's "To the Point" (April 26), the issue of gas prices was
raised. You suggested that the Administration, in response to these current high
prices, will and should point out how economic growth has been strong, and that
this has benefited all Americans. By the way you couched it, it sounded like
somewhat of an endorsement.
Growth normally translates into a benefit for most Americans through real wage increases. Except over the past five years, real wages have fallen. In fact, over the past two years, over 80% of American workers have seen their inflation adjusted wages fall.
The benefits of our recent economic growth -- and I'm not saying that this is good or bad, just pointing it out -- have been felt at the upper end of the economic/income curve (nicely represented by Retiring Exxon Chair Lee Raymond's approximate 400 million dollar retirement package, or Exxon's record 36 billion dollars in profits last year).
New Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, in his Congressional Testimony earlier this year, makes a similar point:
"What we have is an economy in which, thanks to increased productivity, gross domestic product goes up and a very, very large share -- an excessive share of the increased wealth has gone to a very small number of people who own the capital."
Additionally, fueling that growth is
constant deficit spending. A few democrats, and some liberals, may be
loathe to admit this, but that basic Keynesian premise is not an illusion.
Holding everything constant, and increasing net aggregate demand (through
increased net government expenditures, be they through tax decreases or spending
increases) will spur some growth.
Without arguing the short term wisdom of such an approach, over the longer term
it is a bit of a ponzi scheme. In essence, we borrow from the future to
fuel a little extra now. It's a foolish approach; certainly over the long term,
and when not absolutely necessary over the short run. First, we borrow
from the future (which does affect most Americans). Second, we compete with
private capital, slightly driving up the real cost of investment. Third, we have
to pay interest on the aggregate federal debt. These payments, which often go
unmentioned when we hear politicians and others speak of "mortgaging our
children's future," are both enormous, and a flat out waste. Such payments on
the federal debt
were
352 billion dollars last year alone. (Total interest payments
are
projected to be 399 billion for the current fiscal year ending
in September).
It is true that some of that total (about
161 billion last year) goes to U.S. government trust funds.
But since those funds are projected to run deficits even with the current
surpluses, under current policy ALL of those funds are already earmarked, and
more. Thus, in reality, the payments to these trust funds is also a real cost --
even though technically economists and accountants do not count it as such
because "we could avoid it," if we absolutely had to. We will be lucky to meet
those future obligations without borrowing more, let alone changing policy so
radically that those surpluses are not spent. In which case, from a pure
economic perspective, it is irrelevant as to whether those interest payments on
those treasury bills went to military retirement or social security funds
(although this sounds nice), or to Chinese investors.
This enormous borrowing, at far greater net cost than benefit, is what has at
least to some extent helped produce recent economic growth. Yet, contrary to the
assertion that you suggest the administration should maintain, that growth has
not necessarily benefited most Americans.
There is a tendency to simply assume that "growth" is good. Everything
held constant, it is good. But what does it really mean? What does or has
the growth actually translated into? What if that growth is,
metaphorically speaking; a bunch of people driving to gyms, paying memberships,
getting on electric treadmills, driving home, driving to the store, driving
back, instead of just walking to the store in the first place and saving a bunch
of time and money and all of those "GNP (growth) producing economic activities"?
This is not to decry those activities, just to point out that in the abstract,
growth has no meaning. Yet it is easy to fall into the trap of assuming that it
does.
Simply put, for average American families, growth has meaning for two reasons.
First, low unemployment (currently low, and this is a benefit, although it has
been reasonably low, if not quite as low as currently, for many years now).
Second, and more importantly, a rise in real wages.
The latter measurement is the more
important of the two, unless there are huge swings in employment in times of
negative growth, because employment changes affect far fewer people. (Abstract
arguments can be made with respect to the subjective "security" in a job that
may be correlated with higher employment, but evidence indicates that
correlation has become loose as the divergence between high and low paying jobs
has increased, and it is psychological in any regard. Higher employment
also indicates higher job availability, opportunity and job liquidity for all
Americans, which again, only has value for the most part in so far as it
contributes to real wage increases, particularly if otherwise correlated with an
increasing gap between high and low paying jobs rather than an
increasing availability and choice of high paying jobs. Thus, for these
purposes, any arguable wage benefits of increased job "availability" is
irrelevant, since we are already considering real wage changes directly)
Therefore of the two main benefits, real wages are far more important. And
these have fallen. Thus, the argument that this "growth" has benefited all
Americans is not only largely false, this growth, again, has not necessarily
even benefited a majority of working Americans. Yet a majority of working
Americans, in the form of reduced services to make up for dollars that have to
instead be earmarked to pay interest on the increased federal debt, and in the
form of the underlying obligation on that outstanding national debt, are paying
for it."